✨ 24 Jan 2022 | Value Investing Substack NEWS

Cyclical Value Investing’s thesis of CNOOC Ltd, Why Is Ukraine Such An Economic Failure, New Omicron 'Stealth' Variant Emerges, NZ PM cancels wedding, Thailand's Kra Canal: Game changer for China?

Aaron Pek

Jan 25

HIGHLIGHTS

SUBSTACKS + BLOGS + TWITTER

Click this image to read Cyclical Value Investing’s long thesis of CNOOC Ltd

Asian Century Stocks

Monday morning links

A top adviser to China’s government said that the current zero-covid policy is still the right one for now. It remains to be seen whether the end of the 2022 Winter Olympics on 20 February will change the government’s willingness to open up. I spent a week digging into…

4 months ago · 3 likes · Michael Fritzell

Giles Capital

Our new investment idea: FPT Corporation (HOSE:FPT)

4 months ago · Giles Capital

Noahpinion

Why is Ukraine such an economic failure?

Two articles have been very helpful for me in understanding Russia’s current threat to invade Ukraine. One is this post by Rob Lee explaining what Russia might hope to gain from various types of military actions. And another is this backgrounder by Adam Tooze…

4 months ago · 40 likes · 25 comments · Noah Smith

LINKS

Stock Markets:

Activist investor pushes Peloton to fire CEO and seek sale | Bloomberg (USA - Tech)
Malaysia’s house price: Will there be a market boom in 2022? (Malaysia - Real Estate)

But there is little momentum to support the price surge in the last few years. Coupled with the fact that prime housing markets in the country are either saturated (like Penang and Kuala Lumpur) or nearly saturated (like Negeri Sembilan, Johor and Selangor) in terms of supply, the country’s housing market has started displaying an inflection point in its growth. As the high-growth stage that came with the speculation herd instinct and widespread investment becomes less prevalent, houses in the market for the next few years are unlikely to be overpriced. Instead, the main culprit of worsening housing affordability is the decreasing household income and purchasing power caused by a subdued economy.
With rising material costs, any increase in the cost of doing business will definitely bring a fundamental price increase to the product. However, such a hard cost increment is considered healthy and should not be treated the same as house prices surge that causes overpricing. In this sense, one should not be too pessimistic about the property market in 2022. Though there could be a price increase, if the market sentiment is flat, then the demand will also be affected. There is a ceiling for property developers to increase housing prices. Also, the country’s housing market is still marred by issues such as overhang, affordability, high household debts and tighter credit standards. This gives little room for price hikes.